International Monetary Fund raises global economic outlook

Washington, October 14th (Argus) - The International Monetary Fund has raised its forecast for global economic growth in 2025 and 2026, but the economic basis for the increase is before the recent outbreak of trade tensions between China and the United States.

The International Monetary Fund predicts in its latest World Economic Outlook released on Tuesday that the global economy will grow by 3.2% in 2025 and 3.1% in 2026. And just three months ago, the International Monetary Fund predicted an economic growth rate of 3% for 2025. Many economists, including the International Energy Agency (IEA), a regulatory agency of the OECD, use IMF forecasts to simulate oil demand forecasts.

So far, the increase in tariffs and its impact have been smaller than expected, "said Pierre Olivier Gulinchas, Chief Economist of the International Monetary Fund.

The IMF's forecast is based on available data as of the end of September. Recently, the trade tensions between China and the United States have once again escalated.

The possibility of further escalation of global trade tensions is part of the IMF's outlook. The legal effective tariff rates in the United States remain high, trade tensions continue to escalate, and there is currently no guarantee of a lasting trade agreement, "Gulinchas said.