Global economic uncertainty drives gold demand and price increase

On October 16, 2025, China Merchants Futures released a research report on the fund industry, which pointed out that global economic uncertainty has led to an increase in demand for gold, and the price of gold has broken through historical highs.

The report summary is as follows: Market performance: International gold prices denominated in London gold have surpassed the $4200 mark. Fundamentals: Cent stated that the possibility of the United States imposing 100% tariffs on China may not necessarily occur, and that both sides can negotiate in the coming weeks to avoid the escalation of the trade war; US court temporarily prohibits Trump from mass layoffs during government shutdown; Federal Reserve Governor Stephen Milan stated that trade tensions have increased uncertainty about economic growth prospects, making it more necessary for policymakers to cut interest rates as soon as possible. It sounds realistic to cut interest rates twice this year; In September, China added 3.53 trillion yuan of social financing, 1.29 trillion yuan of RMB loans, and 2.21 trillion yuan of RMB deposits, with the M2-M1 scissors gap hitting a new year low of 1.2 percentage points; China's September CPI year-on-year decline narrowed to 0.3%, core CPI returned to 1% for the first time in nearly 19 months, and PPI year-on-year decline narrowed to 2.3%; The Federal Reserve's Beige Book shows that tariffs have pushed up prices, and consumers are feeling the impact. Domestic gold ETF fund inflow. COMEX's gold inventory is 1221 tons, a decrease of 12 tons; The gold inventory in the previous period was 75.1 tons, an increase of 2.9 tons; London's September gold inventory was 8839 tons, an increase of 39 tons; The silver inventory on the previous exchange was 1030 tons, a decrease of 30 tons. The silver inventory on the gold exchange was 1109 tons, a decrease of 28 tons, and the COMEX silver inventory was 15945 tons, a decrease of 91 tons; London's silver inventory decreased by 65 tons to 24578 tons in September; India imported approximately 475 tons of silver in August; The world's largest gold ETF-SPDR holding is 1022 tons, an increase of 1 ton; The holding of silver ETF iShares is 15422 tons, a decrease of 311 tons. Trading strategy: The logic of de dollarization remains unchanged, with the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates as scheduled, but the outlook is contradictory. Short term prices are at historical highs, and speculative funds are pouring into London silver, causing a squeeze. However, global sources of goods are beginning to flood in, and there is a possibility of significant fluctuations at high levels in the future. It is recommended to hold gold long and silver long with caution. Risk warning: With repeated trade wars, the recovery of the US economy exceeds expectations, and the London silver squeeze is over.