2026 Abraham Global Trade Forum
According to data, global trade growth is expected to reach 2.4% in 2025 but slow down to 0.5% in 2026, primarily influenced by factors such as US tariff policies, OPEC+ production increases, and geopolitical issues. The current global trade trend exhibits characteristics of diversification, enhanced regional cooperation, and the coexistence of deglobalization and reglobalization, while facing multiple challenges such as geopolitical tensions and industrial chain adjustments. The global trade landscape is shifting from being dominated by a few major countries to one where multiple nations participate together, with emerging markets like Asia, Africa, and Latin America becoming significant players. Regional trade agreements like the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) and the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA) have promoted economic integration within regions and reduced tariff barriers. Countries are more inclined to address uncertainties through regional cooperation. For instance, China has promoted cooperation with emerging markets such as ASEAN and Africa through institutional innovations like free trade zones and free trade ports, while strengthening layouts in new areas like green trade and digital trade. Some countries are promoting localized production due to supply chain security concerns, but this may affect efficiency in the long run. For example, the US's imposition of tariffs has triggered countermeasures from China, reflecting the rise of trade protectionism; meanwhile, China is expanding its international market through new business models like cross-border e-commerce and overseas warehouses, indicating that globalization is still undergoing adjustment. The global industrial chain is accelerating towards high-tech and high value-added sectors, necessitating China to enhance its competitiveness in green manufacturing and low-carbon brands. Traditional sectors like metal trading are experiencing adjustments due to currency unification issues, such as the London Metal Exchange suspending non-dollar-denominated transactions, promoting diversification of pricing systems. Geopolitical conflicts (such as the Red Sea crisis), tariff barriers, and rising costs increase trade uncertainties, but the growth of emerging market demand and the application of digital technology provide transformation opportunities for various countries.
Currently, the difficulties in global trade are primarily manifested in intensified trade protectionism, geopolitical conflicts, sluggish global economic growth, technical barriers, and industrial chain restructuring. These factors are intertwined, leading to a slowdown in trade growth and increased uncertainty. Many countries have securitized and politicized trade, implementing trade protection through measures such as imposing tariffs and restricting the export of key products. For example, the United States has imposed tariffs of up to 102.5% on Chinese electric vehicles, batteries, and other goods, and the United States-Japan-Netherlands agreement restricts the export of semiconductor equipment to China, exacerbating global trade frictions. The Russia-Ukraine conflict, the Israel-Palestine conflict, and other ongoing conflicts continue to deepen, affecting the stability of the global supply chain. The United States, the European Union, and others promote trade liberalization through regional trade agreements (such as the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement and the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement), but the trend towards politicization still impacts the trade environment. According to data from the World Trade Organization, the share of intermediate goods in global trade fell to 48.5% in the first half of 2023, lower than the average level of the previous three years. Traditional exporting countries such as Germany and South Korea are facing a decline in trade, and the share of bilateral trade between the United States and Asia has also decreased. The United States-led policy of "decoupling and disconnection" promotes the "de-Sinicization" of industrial chains and restricts the export of key technologies in conjunction with its allies. Meanwhile, significant gaps in digital trade areas (such as artificial intelligence infrastructure) between the United States and China affect the global trade structure. According to the Peterson Institute for International Economics, the core challenges of the global trading system are "trust" and "execution capability," and the lack of policy predictability and multilateral dialogue mechanisms exacerbates trade uncertainty.
Against this backdrop, and in the context of the new trend in global trade, the "Abraham Global Trade Forum" is being organized by the Abraham Global Network with the support of relevant authoritative institutions to explore issues related to global trade. This forum will invite relevant government departments, industry experts, scholars, and entrepreneurs to explore new models for global trade. We sincerely invite enterprises in the fields of business services, communication services, construction services, financial services, tourism services, entertainment and cultural services, transportation services, health and social services, education services, distribution services, environmental services, and other service-oriented enterprises to gather together and exchange views on the current situation, challenges, and opportunities of global trade, promoting the deep integration of industry, academia, research, application, and use globally. The Abraham Global Trade Forum is soliciting submissions, with the theme of "Standard-led Digital Empowerment".
